Good morninggi global infinity, everyone.

It’s been just over a week since the election, and we’re still working to nail down exactly what happened.

Unfortunately, it will be a while until all of the data is final. Votes are still being tallied across the country, and even once the count is finished it will be months until we have the exact account of who did or did not vote, along with detailed results by precinct.

In the meantime, a few notes on what we know so far.

Many of this cycle’s surprising shifts were foreshadowed in the midterms.

The national popular vote for president in 2024 will look eerily similar to the popular vote for U.S. House in 2022. The winner by state will be exactly the same — at least if you take the combined Republican vote in Alaska in 2022. And many of the details will be similar as well, like Republicans’ big gains in Florida and New York.

As a result, the 2024 presidential election results by state correlate more closely with the swings from the 2022 midterm election in the U.S. House than with the result of the 2020 presidential election.

This is not what anyone would have expected two years ago. Usually, midterms don’t foreshadow the next presidential election. With Donald J. Trump running for a third time, the case to expect a simple repeat of the 2020 election was even better than usual.

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